OPEC + manipulates the oil market

Analitika pasar komoditas dan pasar keuangan

Market Watch 10.03.2021

In today's release, we’ll cover the following topics:

  • Prospects for the oil market.
  • OECD forecast for 2021.
  • Strengthening commodity currencies.
  • US inflation and oil reserves.

I will start today's release from the “black gold” market. Of course, you all know that the price of American WTI crude oil has reached a psychological level of $ 70 per barrel, having updated its maximum value since October 2019. All of this was due to the unexpected decision of the Cartel and its allies to maintain oil production quotas, while demand continues to increase, thereby contributing to the emergence of shortages.

We regularly receive optimistic forecasts for the growth of the global economy in 2021, which will inevitably lead to an increase in physical demand for oil. For example, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has published a report according to which global GDP will exceed the pre-crisis level by mid-2021. Thus, the deficit in the "black gold" market will increase, which in turn will lead to a significant decrease in reserves. Therefore, the possibility of further growth in oil prices in the next few months should not be ruled out.

Now let's talk in more detail about the published OECD forecast for 2021. According to the analysts of the organization, India will become the fastest growing major economy in the world showing 12.6% growth, while the GDP of China and the United States will increase by 7.8% and 6.5%, respectively. Such an optimistic forecast has already affected the dynamics of trading in commodity markets, as well as key US stock indices, strengthening them.

Moving to the foreign exchange market, I would like to note the lack of excitement and rather low saturation of the news background on Tuesday. In the first half of the day, we saw a moderate strengthening of commodity currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars. But without a significant weakening of the American currency, we cannot count on further growth in the commodity sector currencies. Therefore, only today, during the publication of the inflation report in the United States, trading activity may noticeably increase.

Even a slight excess of the forecasted inflation growth rates in the USA, especially the annual value, may provide a rather strong support for the American currency. Let me remind you that rising inflation increases the likelihood of a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. This is positive for the currency and negative for the stock market. I would also like to draw your attention to the upcoming release of the report on oil and petroleum products from the US Department of Energy. Further growth of stocks can provoke a fairly strong wave of sales in the "black gold" market.

Keep a close eye on the news background and be prepared for any market surprises.